Bangladesh election reshapes political order as BNP heads towards sweeping victory

Bangladesh’s 13th parliamentary election has taken place against the backdrop of political upheaval and historic realignment, with early results indicating that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is poised to secure a commanding majority in a contest defined as much by absence as by competition.

For the first time since 2008, the Awami League did not appear on the ballot — a seismic shift following the Student-led uprising of August 2024 that forced Sheikh Hasina from office and dismantled a political order that had dominated the country for more than a decade. Thursday’s vote therefore, carried symbolic weight: it marked not only an electoral exercise, but a moment of recalibration for a nation still adjusting to abrupt change.

Pre-election surveys painted a picture of a competitive race, yet the campaign unfolded within an altered political field. Seven major national polls — including those conducted by the International Republican Institute and Innovision Consulting — suggested the BNP was on course for an effective majority in the 300-seat Jatiya Sangsad.

Analysts cautioned, however, that Bangladesh’s first-past-the-post electoral system has historically magnified modest vote leads into sweeping parliamentary advantages. Even narrow margins in individual constituencies can translate into decisive control of the legislature.

Polling began at 7:30 am across 42,779 centres and concluded at 4:30 pm. While turnout appeared subdued in some urban areas during the morning, election officials and observers reported a steady increase as the day progressed, with younger voters particularly visible at polling stations.

The interim administration overseeing the vote described the process as largely peaceful, citing only isolated incidents. Officials privately indicated that Jamaat-e-Islami could secure around 40 seats — primarily in Rajshahi, Rangpur, Khulna, Sylhet, and Barishal — a far more modest outcome than some earlier predictions had suggested.

Unofficial results from several constituencies underscored the BNP’s apparent advantage.

In Jhenaidah-1 (Shailkupa), BNP candidate and former attorney general Advocate Md Asaduzzaman secured 171,598 votes across 117 centres, defeating Jamaat candidate Matiur Rahman, who polled 55,577.

In Cumilla-4 (Debidwar), Hasnat Abdullah won decisively with 172,000 votes, while his nearest rival received 26,000.

In Sunamganj-2, candidate Shishir Monir publicly conceded defeat on social media, congratulating BNP’s Nasir Uddin Chowdhury before the final certified tally had been released.

Elsewhere, contests remained tight. In Dhaka-8 — covering Motijheel, Shahbagh, Ramna, Paltan and Shahjahanpur — early results from six centres showed BNP’s Mirza Abbas narrowly ahead with 2,915 votes, edging NCP’s Nasiruddin Patwary by fewer than 30 votes. The constituency has more than 275,000 registered voters.

A symbolic setback occurred in Dhaka-15, where Jamaat’s amir, Dr Shafiqur Rahman, lost one centre by just five votes despite leading comfortably in others — a reminder of how slender margins can shape narratives on election night.

In Dhaka-17, BNP chair Tarique Rahman led with 9,962 votes in 18 counted centres, ahead of Jamaat candidate Dr SM Khaliduzzaman, who secured 9,228.

Political analysts point to three key dynamics underpinning the BNP’s apparent surge.

First, the absence of the আওয়ামী League appears to have consolidated opposition-leaning voters behind the BNP rather than dispersing them among smaller parties. In many constituencies, that consolidation has proved decisive.

Second, the mechanics of the electoral system favour larger parties when opposition votes are fragmented. The first-past-the-post model rewards even slim pluralities with full parliamentary seats, potentially amplifying the BNP’s national vote share into a sizeable majority.

Third, youth mobilisation following the 2024 uprising has altered the electoral calculus. Many first-time voters entered the political arena amid calls for institutional reform and accountability, reshaping allegiances and expectations.

While full results from all 300 constituencies are still pending, early returns suggest the BNP may surpass the threshold required to form a government, possibly exceeding 200 seats.

Yet analysts caution that electoral victory does not guarantee political stability. Bangladesh remains in transition, its institutions adjusting to the aftershocks of last year’s upheaval. The challenge for any incoming administration will extend beyond parliamentary arithmetic: it will involve restoring confidence, stabilising governance and translating electoral momentum into durable democratic practice.

As ballots continue to be counted, the election stands as both an endpoint and a beginning — closing one chapter of Bangladesh’s turbulent political history while opening another whose contours remain uncertain.

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Asif Showkat Kallol: Germany-based online outlet, Head of News, The Mirror Asian & Contributor, Pressenza- Dhaka Bureau.