In a historic political shift in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is returning to state power after a long 20-year hiatus. Following a landslide victory in the 13th National Parliamentary Election held on Thursday (February 12), the party is now on course to form the government. According to the final election results, the BNP-led alliance secured 212 out of 299 parliamentary seats, with the BNP winning 209 seats individually under the ‘Sheaf of Paddy’ symbol.
A Royal Return and the ‘Tarique Rahman Magic’
The election results mark the beginning of a new era in Bangladesh. This serves as an unprecedented political triumph, particularly for party Chairman Tarique Rahman. After living in exile in London for 17 years, he returned to the country on December 25. Following the passing of his mother, Begum Khaleda Zia, on December 30, Mr. Rahman took full command of the party as its Chairperson.
In this election, he was elected as a Member of Parliament for the first time, winning by large margins in two constituencies across Dhaka and Bogra. Per the BNP’s prior announcement, as the head of the majority party, Mr. Rahman is set to become the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh.
Election Landscape: Allies Turned Rivals
This was the first general election since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government following the student-led uprising on August 5, 2024. Interestingly, the BNP’s primary challenge in this election came from its long-time ally, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami.
While the BNP alliance secured 212 seats (209 for BNP alone), the Jamaat-led alliance bagged 78 seats (68 for Jamaat-e-Islami alone). Consequently, Jamaat-e-Islami is set to become the main opposition party for the first time in the history of the Bangladesh National Parliament. Alongside the general election, a national referendum was also held as part of the reform initiatives by Dr. Muhammad Yunus’s interim government.
‘I Have a Plan’: New Equations in Geo-Politics
Upon his return, Tarique Rahman echoed Martin Luther King Jr. in his first public rally, declaring, ‘I have a plan.’ Global leaders are now closely watching the details of that plan. This shift in power is particularly significant for South Asian geopolitics.
On Friday morning, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent a congratulatory message to Mr. Rahman. This swift gesture from Delhi- arriving even before messages from China or Pakistan- has caught the attention of analysts. For India, this election was strategically sensitive. Delhi’s primary concern remains whether Bangladesh will lean toward the Pakistan-China axis or maintain a balanced diplomatic stance.
Speaking to the International Press Agency Pressenza on Friday, eminent political analyst and former Vice-Chancellor of Dhaka University, Professor Dr. Anwarullah Chowdhury, said, “The new government under Tarique Rahman will be a major test for regional stability. While there are critical security and border issues with India, the post-August 5 reality opens doors for new dimensions in relationships with Pakistan and China. How Tarique Rahman navigates this ‘diplomatic tightrope’ will determine the future security map of South Asia.