As the world shifts from fossil fuels to electrification and renewable energy, the struggle for control over resources, technologies, and infrastructure is reshaping the balance of global power.
“For more than a century, oil was the energetic heart of the international system. Today the world is entering a transition that does not eliminate the geopolitics of energy but transforms it. New energy sources, new infrastructures, and new minerals are redrawing the map of global power.”
The history of modern power can be read through the history of energy. From the industrial revolution to the contemporary digital economy, societies that mastered energy sources also dominated much of the global economy. Coal powered the first industrial machines, oil enabled the expansion of global transportation, and electricity became the backbone of modern economies.
During the twentieth century, oil was the most important energy resource on the planet. Its extraction, transportation, and refining created a vast infrastructure that connected producing regions with industrial centers and global markets. This energy system supported decades of economic growth but also created deep strategic dependencies among nations.
Today, the world is entering an energy transition that could once again transform that balance. The electrification of the economy, the expansion of renewable energy and the need to reduce carbon emissions are changing the way energy is produced and consumed across the planet.
Yet the energy transition does not mean the end of energy geopolitics. History shows that every energy transformation creates new forms of economic and strategic competition. New resources become critical, new infrastructures become essential, and new actors gain influence within the international system.
In this context, the central question of the twenty-first century is not whether energy will remain a source of power. The question is who will control the new resources, networks and infrastructures that will sustain the global energy system.
- Energy and Power in Modern History
The major economic transformations in history have been closely linked to changes in how societies produce energy. The industrial revolution of the eighteenth century was driven by coal, which powered the first steam engines and expanded industrial production across Europe and North America.
The twentieth century, by contrast, became the century of oil. The expansion of automobiles, commercial aviation and global maritime transport turned hydrocarbons into the dominant fuel of the global economic system. Oil enabled unprecedented mobility of people and goods and facilitated the integration of markets on a global scale.
Today oil remains one of the most important energy sources in the world. Roughly thirty percent of global energy consumption still depends on this resource. International oil trade moves more than two trillion dollars annually and fuels much of global transportation.
Energy has also played a central role in the military dimension of power. Modern armed forces depend heavily on fuel to operate vehicles, aircraft and complex logistics systems. Throughout the twentieth century, access to energy resources was a strategic factor in numerous conflicts and international alliances.
The relationship between energy and economic power remains evident in the structure of the global energy system. The global energy market exceeds six trillion dollars annually and sustains a large share of the planet’s industrial and technological activity.
Hard Numbers
- Global energy transition investments exceeded USD 1.7 trillion in 2023.
- The International Energy Agency estimates annual investment could surpass USD 4 trillion by 2030.
- Renewable energy now generates about 30% of global electricity.
- Global solar capacity exceeds 1,200 GW installed and continues to grow rapidly.
- More than 14 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2023, accelerating transport electrification.
- The Global Energy Transition
The world is now beginning an energy transformation that could profoundly reshape this system. The transition toward lower-carbon energy sources and the growing electrification of the economy are driving massive investments in new energy technologies.
Renewable energy (particularly solar and wind) has experienced extraordinary growth over the past two decades. Global solar capacity recently surpassed 1.4 terawatts, while electricity generation from renewable sources now accounts for roughly 30 percent of global electricity production.
Investments in the energy transition already exceed USD 1.7 trillion annually. This process includes the expansion of renewable energy, the development of energy storage systems, the modernization of power grids and the growth of emerging technologies such as green hydrogen.
Electrification is one of the central drivers of this transformation. Electric vehicles, electrified heating systems and the digitalization of the economy are all increasing global electricity demand.
Several projections indicate that global electricity consumption could double before mid-century, requiring massive investments in both generation capacity and transmission infrastructure capable of delivering large volumes of energy safely and efficiently.
Hard Numbers
- Global energy transition investments exceeded USD 1.7 trillion in 2023.
- Annual investment could exceed USD 4 trillion by 2030.
- Renewable energy produces around 30% of global electricity.
- Global solar capacity exceeds 1,200 GW installed.
- More than 14 million electric vehicles were sold globally in 2023.
- Minerals and Materials of the New Energy System
The energy transition is also creating a new geopolitics of natural resources. Technologies that enable clean energy generation and electricity storage depend on specific minerals whose availability is limited.
Lithium, for example, has become a key component in batteries used for electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Various studies indicate that global lithium demand could multiply several times over the coming decades.
Copper is another essential resource for the electrification of the economy. An electric vehicle requires up to four times more copper than a conventional car, while electrical grids and renewable energy installations require vast quantities of this conductive metal.
Other minerals such as cobalt, nickel and rare earth elements also play a crucial role in the production of batteries, wind turbines and advanced electronic components.
The global critical minerals market already exceeds USD 300 billion, and it is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades. However, many of these resources are concentrated in a limited number of countries, creating new strategic dependencies within the international system.
Hard Numbers
- The energy transition could require up to six times more critical minerals by 2040 (IEA).
- Global lithium demand could increase up to forty times by 2040.
- Global copper demand could rise 30–40% by 2040 due to electrification.
- An electric vehicle uses three to four times more copper than a conventional car.
- Clean technologies could account for over 50% of global demand for some strategic minerals by 2040.
- Energy Infrastructure and Geopolitical Power
Energy depends not only on natural resources but also on complex infrastructures that allow it to be produced, transported and distributed globally.
The world’s electricity networks today extend over more than 80 million kilometers, connecting power plants with cities, industries and consumption centers. Expanding and modernizing these networks will be one of the central challenges of the energy transition.
Various estimates suggest that investments in electricity grids could exceed USD 20 trillion in the coming decades. These investments will enable the integration of renewable energy, improve system stability and expand access to electricity in many regions.
Energy security has become a central element of international politics. Countries seek stable energy sources, diversified suppliers and infrastructures capable of reducing strategic vulnerabilities.
International energy trade represents roughly 10 percent of global trade. This interdependence creates opportunities for cooperation but also generates tensions when resources or infrastructures become instruments of political influence.
Hard Numbers
- The world consumes around 100 million barrels of oil every day.
- Global natural gas consumption exceeds 4 trillion cubic meters annually.
- Global electricity generation surpasses 30,000 TWh per year.
- Renewable energy represents about 30% of global electricity generation.
- Lithium demand for batteries could grow up to forty times by 2040.
- United States vs China: The Competition for the Energy System of the 21st Century
The global energy transition is not only a technological transformation. It is also a new arena of competition among major powers.
The United States dominated much of the twentieth-century energy system through its oil industry, technological capabilities and influence over international economic institutions. Its energy infrastructure, corporations and financial system helped shape the global energy market.
China, however, has emerged as a central actor in the new energy economy. Its rapid industrial growth has been accompanied by massive investments in renewable energy, electricity grids, batteries and advanced energy technologies.
Today the competition between the two powers extends from energy production to the manufacturing of technologies that will enable the electrification of the planet.
China currently leads global production of solar panels, batteries and several technologies associated with the energy transition. The United States maintains strong capabilities in technological innovation, finance and industrial development.
This competition will determine not only who produces energy in the future, but also who controls the technologies and industrial supply chains that sustain the global energy system.
In other words, the energy transition is also a competition for economic power in the twenty-first century.
Hard Numbers
- China produces more than 75% of the world’s solar panels.
- Over 70% of global battery production is concentrated in Asia.
- The United States remains the world’s largest economy with more than USD 26 trillion GDP.
- China represents about 18% of global GDP and is the world’s largest CO₂ emitter.
- China is also the largest investor in renewable energy.
6) Energy as Power
The energy transition is one of the most important economic processes of our time. It is not simply about replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy. It is about transforming the energy system that sustains the global economy.
History shows that each energy transition reshapes the balance of power among nations. Coal fueled European industrialization. Oil redefined the global economy during the twentieth century. Electrification and renewable energy may now create a new geopolitical configuration.
Countries that succeed in developing advanced energy technologies, securing strategic resources and building efficient infrastructures will be better positioned in the global economy of the future.
Energy has always been one of the material foundations of power. In the twenty-first century that reality will not disappear—it will simply change form. Because in the modern world power depends not only on territories or armies, but also on who produces the energy that moves the planet.
Throughout the history of life, species that managed to harness new sources of energy gained decisive evolutionary advantages. In Darwinian terms, evolution does not reward the strongest species but those best able to adapt to changing conditions.
“For humanity, that adaptation has been expressed through the ability to transform natural energy into economic, technological and political power. Coal drove the industrial revolution, oil shaped twentieth-century geopolitics, and now new forms of energy are beginning to reorganize the map of global power. As in any evolutionary process, the societies that understand this transition first will have the greatest chances of prospering in the emerging global system.”
“At its core, the energy transition is not merely a technological shift. It is a new chapter in human evolution—one in which the power of the twenty-first century will depend on who masters the new sources of energy that will move the world.”
Brief Bibliography
- International Energy Agency — World Energy Outlook
- BloombergNEF — Energy Transition Investment Reports
- International Renewable Energy Agency — Global Energy Transformation Report
- World Bank — Minerals for Climate Action
- BP — Statistical Review of World Energy