Published by: Conflict and Environment Conservatory

Analysing how governments address military emissions and conflict impacts in UNFCCC Nationally Determined Contributions: the climate action plans that set out how emissions will be reduced and how countries will adapt to climate risks.

Key findings

Military emissions

• Military emissions data is consistently missing from countries’ emissions reporting, representing a key emissions data gap from a high-contributing sector of the economy.
• In estimations and reporting outside UNFCCC processes, military emissions are calculated to represent a large share of global emissions. 
• Very few countries effectively report on their military emissions nor account for them in their emissions reduction planning in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• None of the NDCs of the world’s largest military spenders, including the US, China and Russia, contain relevant mentions of militaries.
• No government has made an explicit commitment to reduce military greenhouse gas emissions within its NDC, despite net zero commitments elsewhere.
• Countries are unlikely to realistically achieve their net zero ambitions and keep under 1.5 and 2C targets, if military emissions are not included in emission reduction targets. 

Conflict and climate impacts

• Armed conflict is increasingly recognised as a barrier to climate mitigation and adaptation, however countries rarely connect conflict with the emissions generated by militaries themselves.
• However, in the most recent NDCs some countries explicitly reference the impact conflict can have on climate mitigation and adaptation plans, including the impact of the destruction of carbon sinks. 
• Given the damage that can result from conflict, this report recommends viewing peacebuilding and conflict prevention as another dimension of climate action.

Contents

Introduction

1. Analysis of Nationally Determined Contributions: Military emissons

1.1 Data gaps and lack of accounting

1.2 Military climate commitments

1.3 Risk to climate targets

2. Analysis of Nationally Determined Contributions: Conflict and climate action

2.1 Conflict, emissions and mitigation

2.2 Conflict, vulnerability and adaptation

2.3 Missing links between conflicts and emissions

Conclusion and recommendations

Introduction

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the official national climate plans of countries under the Paris Agreement. A country’s NDC outlines how it will cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to climate change. Countries must review and update their NDCs every five years, with each government deciding its needs and targets based on its local circumstances and capabilities. The submission includes emission targets with specific goals to lower GHG emissions. The aim of NDCs is to keep global warming under the 1.5C target and track climate action by showing what each country commits to in the short and medium term. The most recent NDC submissions were in 2025, which is the third cycle of NDC submissions. 

Recent research has highlighted the contribution of militaries to global emissions, with estimates suggesting that the everyday activity of the world’s militaries could be responsible for around 5.5% of global emissions, excluding the additional impact of conflicts. In comparison, another emissions intensive sector, global shipping, which has faced growing pressure to reduce emissions, is estimated to account for 3% of global emissions. In order to tackle climate change it’s important to account for emissions, however military emissions are frequently absent from global emissions reporting to the UNFCCC. Data gaps undermine efforts to identify and address emission hotspots when developing effective emissions reduction plans. 

Armed conflict also impacts climate action, resulting in further consequences for people living in and outside of conflict zones. Studies have highlighted the emissions and climate impacts from recent conflicts. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has emitted 311.4 m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in the four years of fighting, roughly equal to the yearly emissions of France. The conflict emissions from the Israel-Gaza conflict from October 2023 to the January 2025 ceasefire have been estimated to have exceeded 30 m tonnes CO2e, roughly equivalent to the annual emissions of Jordan. Meanwhile conflict can impact countries’ ability to mitigate emissions and adapt to climate change through ecological harm, infrastructure damage and weakened institutions. 

NDCs are one of the main mechanisms for states to report on their emission reduction plans and climate ambition, this report analyses the most recent NDCs in order to assess how militaries and conflicts are impacting climate action.  

Method

This report’s main research question is whether governments acknowledge and include military emissions in climate reduction targets, and how conflict is acknowledged in its impact on national climate ambitions. To assess the extent to which militaries and conflict are addressed in national climate plans, an analysis was carried out of countries’ most recent NDCs, focusing on the latest round submitted from 2025 onwards, which set out countries’ targets up to 2035. NDCs were searched both directly, and by using Climate Policy Radar, for the terms: “military”, “conflict”, “security”, “defence”, “war”, “peace”.

The 31 NDCs that contained relevant mentions of these terms were then reviewed in more detail; notably 29 of the 31 were from non-Annex I countries. Not all mentions were substantive, with some NDCs only mentioning the terms briefly. The submissions and relating paragraphs were then recorded and classed according to how the paragraph discussed military or conflict relating to climate. The findings on military emissions are set out in section 1 and the findings on conflict in section 2.