It’ll strengthen their complementary balancing acts for averting disproportionate dependence on the American and Chinese superpowers amidst the global systemic transition to complex multipolarity.
Putin is on his first state visit to India in four years after having last visited what Russia considers to be its special and privileged strategic partner in December 2021. It was assessed here at the time that they sought to lead a new Non-Aligned Movement (Neo-NAM), the essence of which India pioneered via its “Voice of the Global South” platform in early 2023. The purpose is to counteract Sino-US bi-multipolarity trends by midwifing tri–multipolarity as the stepping stone to complex multipolarity (multiplexity).
In simple English, this means Russia and India jointly helping relatively smaller-sized countries balance between the American and Chinese superpowers, but Russia was soon thereafter compelled to initiate its specialoperation that resulted in a proxy war with NATO. Throughout the course of the Ukrainian Conflict, Russia moved so close to China that those two can now be described as having unofficially formed an Entente, but India helpedRussia preemptively avert disproportionate dependence on it.
This was achieved through its large-scale purchase of discounted Russian oil and reprioritization of the North-South Transport Corridor through Iran for scaling their real-sector trade. Despite mixed reports about whether it’s complying with recent US sanctions to curtail the aforesaid purchases, India remains committed to averting Russia’s disproportionate dependence on China out of fear that this could lead to China coercing Russia to curtail arms exports to India for resolving their border dispute in China’s favor.
The US’ unexpected pressure upon India under Trump 2.0 is intended as punishment for not subordinating itself as the US’ largest-ever vassal, but it had the unintended effect of reminding Indian policymakers of how Russia never pressured their country, thus adding renewed impetus to expanding their ties. It’s within this context that Putin is visiting India, which also comes amidst the renascent Russian–US “New Détente” set into motion by Trump’s 28-point Ukrainian peace deal framework.
US pressure upon India might soon abate if policymakers come to appreciate its pivotal role in Russia’s balancing act vis-à-vis China. This arrangement serves their country’s interests by averting the scenario of Russia becoming China’s raw materials appendage for turbocharging its superpower trajectory and consequently becoming a more serious rival in shaping the emerging world order. Passively facilitating Russia and India’s shared tri-multipolarity vision might accordingly be seen by the US as advantageous.
Putin’s trip to India therefore comes at a mutually opportune time since it’ll strengthen their complementary balancing acts for respectively averting disproportionate dependence on the Chinese and American superpowers. This will help each reach better deals with them by improving their negotiating position while advancing the global systemic transition to multiplexity, which contextualizes what Valdai’s Fyodor Lukyanov meant in describing their ties as “a template for a post-Western world.”